Options for type 2 diabetes risk prediction

Contact persons:  Catarina Schiborn, Anna Birukov

With the help of the DIRIKO study, risk communication with the DRT is to be improved in the future. (Photo: David Ausserhofer/DIfE)

The goal of a type 2 diabetes risk test is to accurately predict the risk of developing diabetes. One of these models is the DIfE – GERMAN DIABETES RISK SCORE (DRT). The DRT was developed at DIfE in 2007 and enables a precise prediction of the 5-year risk for the development of type 2 diabetes, based on non-invasively assessable risk factors. The test is also a central element of our research within the German Center for Diabetes Research (DZD). Here we focus on further improvements in predictive quality through new risk factors, the expansion to predict diabetes-specific complications and the implementation of the DRT in different prevention settings.

The DRT contains modifiable and non-modifiable risk factors. The original version was based on dietary and other lifestyle factors as well as on demographic and anthropometric aspects. In recent years we have examined metabolic markers, genetic markers and family history of diabetes as potentially useful model extensions, using data from the EPIC-Potsdam study.

The updated DRT is available both as a questionnaire in paper form and as an online test.

A key goal of our research on the DRT is to expand it to predict cardiovascular diseases. In contrast to existing prediction models for cardiovascular diseases, we are again aiming for a non-invasive test that can also be used outside of clinical practice. In addition, the data collection within the EPIC-DZD study will enable the DRT to be expanded in the future to predict microvascular complications of diabetes.

In addition to the further development, we will carry out studies on the implementation of the DRT in different prevention settings. With the DIRIKO study, we pursue the goal of comparing different forms of risk communication with the DRT with regard to the associated risk perception of users. The results of this online study form the basis for a future improvement in risk communication with the DRT.


Individual Projects

  • Novel predictors of diabetes, DZD – BMBF/State of Brandenburg
  • Implementation of the German Diabetes Risk Score, DZD – BMBF/State of Brandenburg
  • Risk factors for the incidence of macro- and microvascular diseases in diabetes and prediction of complications, DZD – BMBF/State of Brandenburg