10:30-11:15

Registration

11:15-11:30

Welcome and Introduction
Hans-Georg Joost (DIfE), Matthias Schulze (DIfE)

11:30-13:00

Current Diabetes Risk Prediction Models (chair: M. Schulze)

Systematic Review of Diabetes Risk Prediction Models
Brian Buijsse (DIfE, Potsdam)

IGT and IFG for diabetes prediction
Wolfgang Rathmann (DDZ, Düsseldorf)

Risk prediction with conventional, metabolic and genetic markers
Matthias Schulze (DIfE, Potsdam)

13:00-14:00

Lunch Break

14:00-16:00

Derivation and Validation Methodology (chair: N. Cook)

Study designs for derivation and validation of prediction models
Rebecca Simmons (MRC Epidemiology Unit, Cambridge)

Risk prediction models with incomplete data
Bernard Rosner (Harvard Medical School, Boston)

Measures of discrimination and calibration
Annette Peters (Helmholtz Zentrum, München)

Measures of Reclassification
Nancy Cook (Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston)

16:00-16:30

Coffee Break

16:30-17:45

Oral Session 1 (chairs: B. Rosner, W. Rathmann)

Immunological and cardiometabolic risk factors in the prediction of incident type 2 diabetes: MONICA/KORA Augsburg Case-Cohort Study
Christian Herder (DDZ, Düsseldorf), Barbara Thorand (Helmholtz Zentrum München)

External validation of KORA Prediction Models for type 2 diabetes: the PREVEND Study
Ali Abbasi (University Medical Center Groningen)

Low-cost screening model with standard cardiometabolic risk factors for prediction of incident type 2 diabetes: The WHITEHALL II Study
Alexandros Heraclides (Steno Diabetes Center, Gentofte)

The Leicester risk prediction models for identifying people with diabetes or at risk of diabetes: Patient self assessment score and a GP practice database score
Laura Gray (University of Leicester)

Screening for individuals at high risk for diabetes mellitus type 2 with fasting glucose or HbA1c? A comparison of their abilities to predict incident diabetes and cardiovascular events in 6803 non-diabetic individuals
Ben Schöttker (German Cancer Research Center, Heidelberg)

09:00-10:30

Application of Diabetes Risk Prediction Models (chair: A. Fritsche)

Clinical Decision Making
Andreas Fritsche (University of Tübingen)

Population-based Prevention
Peter Schwarz (Technical University of Dresden)

Estimating the population burden of disease
Peter Engelfriet (RIVM, Bilthoven)

10:30-11:00

Coffee Break

11:00-12:00

Oral Session 2 (chairs: D. Witte, P. Engelfriet)

External validation of the UKPDS risk engine in patients with type 2 diabetes
Susan van Dieren (University Medical Center Utrecht)

Pro-insulin levels predict post-transplant diabetes in renal transplant recipients
Dorien Zelle (University Medical Center Groningen)

Blood glucose testing and primary prevention of diabetes mellitus type 2 – evaluation of the effect of evidence based patient information
Jutta Genz (DDZ, Düsseldorf)

The Cost-Effectiveness of a lifestyle intervention programme in Germany: Markov Modelling
Anne Neumann (University of Dresden, Cancer Epidemiology)

12:00-13:00

Benefits, Costs, and Risks (chair: E. Gregg)

Health and Economic Tradeoffs of Alternative Risk Stratification Strategies
Edward Gregg (CDC, Atlanta)

Ethical and social aspects of risk communication
Pascal Borry (Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Belgium)

13:00-14:00

Lunch

14:00-15:30

Risk Communication (chair: S. Sheridan)

Effects of Risk Communication on Risk Perception
Stacey L. Sheridan (University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill)

Format of Risk Assessment and Communication and Screening Uptakes
Daniel Witte (Steno Diabetes Center, Gentofte)

Use of Information Technology for Risk Assessment and Communication
Christine Holmberg (Berlin School of Public Health)

15:30

Farewell / Coffee